‘He knows the club’, four words that encapsulate the Premiership’s troubling love affair with untested managers and, more often than not, spell trouble for fans of the club.

Hibernian manager David Gray has endured a torrid season in the dugout after being announced with an eerily similar statement, ‘David understands the pressures and demands that comes with a club like Hibs, knows Scottish football inside out’.

One win this season has left the club flailing at the foot of the table.

Indiscipline, players arguing with fans, a board suffering from resignations and plagued by quick fixes would hamper even the most experienced manager. Little wonder therefore that the man in his first ever campaign as a manager at senior level is struggling.

So why was he offered the position in the first place?

For all the recent troubles, there is an acknowledgement that Gray holds a special place in the memories of the Easter Road faithful.

A winner against Rangers to seal the Scottish Cup final eight years ago cemented his place in club folklore and it has no doubt given him some much needed leeway during turbulent times at the club.

Managerially speaking things did not get off to bad start either, two victories and a draw were a good return during his two spells as caretaker last season (there been have four in total). Good enough that the Edinburgh man’s ten games in the dugout were not seen as any kind of hindrance to holding the poisoned chalice full time.

Just a few months on, Gray’s job is hanging by a thread and now faces an unceremonious end to his time at the club.

Yet the strange case of David Gray’s hiring is far from an isolated one in the top flight of Scottish football.

Deja vu

Since 2020, ten managers have been offered a Premiership job as their first ever permanent position.

Six have been sacked. One, David Martindale, remains in the job. Three, Don Cowie, Tony Docherty and Gray were only appointed last season.

Granted there are success stories. Callum Davidson’s cup double with St. Johnstone was an achievement unlikely to be repeated for years to come but flirting with the relegation zone saw him lose the position in his third season.

Martindale too had worked wonders to keep Livingston in the Premiership on a shoestring budget, until last season proved to be a campaign too many for the side.

Unfortunately they are a rarity in the business which trots out an all too familiar narrative in difficult times.

A manager is sacked and an interim, who is either a club legend or a member of the coaching staff achieves an upturn in results. They are offered the role full time but within a few months are sacked when results are poor as the club end up no better off or even sometimes in a worse place.

It is a practice that has seen the development of clubs stunted by a lack of long term planning.

During the 2022/23 season, Steven Hammell (Motherwell), Steve MacLean (St. Johnstone) and Barry Robson (Motherwell) were all given their first role after impressing as interims.

They lasted 19, 28 and 49 games respectively.

As it stands, Cowie, Docherty and Gray have eight wins from forty games between them this season, with the Hibernian boss contributing just one of those.

History would suggest they are on borrowed time.

A sideways ladder

Scottish football, like many others, follows a pyramid model in which clubs can progress up to the highest echelons of the domestic game.

It is a model that applies to both clubs and players but seemingly less so to those who guide them from the touchline.

Regardless of results, managers cutting their teeth in the lower divisions are rarely chosen for Premiership jobs, often watching another opportunity to make the jump pass them by in favour of someone barely tested at any professional level.

Those who are linked with jobs in the top flight as a result of their work such as John McGlynn, Scott Brown or Rhys McCabe, often operate under structure too supportive to leave when compared to the chaotic club attempting to lure them.

In the case of Aidrieonians boss McCabe, they endure a poor run of form that makes them untouchable regardless of previous achievements.

Bucking the trend

Yet for the doom and gloom so far, this season the appointments of Jimmy Thelin, Simo Valakaris and Neil Critchley has shown promise of a reversal in the trend.

Barry Robson’s time at Aberdeen had ended on a sour note and Neil Warnock’s spell proved disastrous. Yet with Peter Leven at the helm, whose only managerial experience consisted in a brief spell with Dynamo Brest’s reserve team, the side won six of their nine league games, only missing out on the Scottish Cup final by the skin of their teeth.

Many called for Leven’s tenure to be made permanent but the club resisted temptation. Instead approaching Thelin, the then manager of Elfsborg in Sweden.

As the side sit in third and eight points ahead of Rangers, the choice to not look within the club has been an inspired one.

Similarly, after the sacking of Craig Levein in September, St. Johnstone temporarily put Andy Kirk in charge and could have looked through their own history books in search of a permanent appointment.

Instead the Perth club turned outwards, to Latvia specifically, surprising many with a name in Valakaris that perhaps only a select few with memories of Motherwell in the late nineties would remember.

Despite a run of three defeats ending an impressive start, the manager has implemented a possession based approached that has brought the best out of the squad’s attacking players. Benjamin Kimpioka and Nicky Clark now sit joint top of the goalscoring table with five apiece.

Data the future

There were plenty of eyebrows raised when Hearts named Neil Critchley as the man to steer the side clear of the relegation places.

Sacked from two of his three positions in the dugout, Critchley did have one thing going, the data backed him.

In their search to replace former player Steven Naismith, sacked from his first job in management, the club had worked with Brighton owner Tony Bloom’s company Jamestown Analytics. The firm identified Critchley as a leading candidate.

Results have yet to imitate performances but Hearts pressed on regardless, announcing an official agreement with Jamestown that would see the Midlothian side have exclusive access to the company’s data in Scotland.

The service is used by Brighton, Serie A side Como and Union Saint-Gilloise, who finished second in last season’s Pro League whilst winning the Belgian Cup.

End of an era?

Hibs for their part are 25% owned by Bill Foley’s Blacked Knight, whose stable also includes Bournemouth. The deal saw players move to the capital on loan, with Emiliano Marcondes a standout performer but the club remains in dire straits.

Foley aired his frustrations with the club at the end of last season, complaining his company were not being listened to.

Now with the Leith side on the fast track to the Championship, his words are no longer falling on deaf ears. Bournemouth’s head of recruitment Garvan Stewart looks set to play a major role in a future squad overhaul.

Should be the numeric approach pay dividends for the Edinburgh side, Scottish football’s future could be set for a radical shake-up.

Will that future have any room for the interims?