Scotland’s tenure in the UEFA Nations League’s top tier hangs in the balance this Friday, as they face a high-stakes clash against League A Group 1 rivals Croatia.
A loss for the Scots, combined with Poland managing at least a draw against Portugal, would seal their relegation. Even a draw might not be enough, as a surprise Polish victory would push Scotland down the rankings. Meanwhile, Croatia is on the verge of securing a quarter-final spot, adding to the tension of this critical showdown.
Though Scotland managed to scrape a hard-fought point last month, their current Nations League campaign has been challenging. After a disappointing Euro 2024 exit, Steve Clarke’s squad began their campaign with three straight defeats, putting them at the bottom of Group 1. Despite a resilient 0-0 draw with group leaders Portugal, Scotland is still in a precarious position, needing results to avoid relegation to League B.
The pressure on Clarke has eased slightly after the Portugal result, yet Scotland remains in their longest-ever winless stretch at home (six matches) and is enduring a ten-match drought without a competitive victory. Failure to secure maximum points against Croatia on Friday would see them match their longest winless sequence, last recorded in 1998. The story could have been different; late goals conceded against Portugal and Poland and a contentious VAR decision overturning Che Adams’ equaliser in Zagreb have all cost Scotland crucial points.
With two fixtures left, Scotland needs at least four points to avoid automatic relegation. Even third place in the group could lead to a relegation playoff. Croatia, however, has never won in Scotland, their last visit to Hampden in 2013 ending in a 2-0 loss during a World Cup qualifier. Last month, goals from Igor Matanovic and Andrej Kramaric gave Croatia victory over the Scots, but a thrilling 3-3 draw with Poland three days later kept them just shy of securing a quarter-final spot.
The 2023 Nations League runners-up enter this game on seven points and are close to advancing to the knockout rounds again. A win in Glasgow, or a draw combined with a Portugal win over Poland, would confirm Croatia’s progress with a game to spare. Croatia’s solid form in the Nations League has been impressive; only Greece has won more games in the last two editions, an achievement considering Croatia’s shaky start, where they lost seven of their first ten Nations League matches.
In their last 14 away games, Croatia has scored consistently, averaging over two goals per game. They travel to Glasgow with confidence, looking to exploit a vulnerable Scottish defence.
Scotland Nations League form: LLLD
Scotland form (all competitions): DLLLLD
Croatia Nations League form: LWWD
Croatia form (all competitions): DDLWWD
For this clash, Scotland will be boosted by the return of Jack Hendry, John McGinn, and Stuart Armstrong. However, Torino striker Che Adams remains sidelined with a thigh injury, so Tommy Conway, Lyndon Dykes, and Lawrence Shankland are all in contention for a starting spot. Dykes has yet to score in League One, while Shankland has only managed one goal this season, despite an impressive 33-goal haul last term.
Supporting the forward line will be McGinn and Scott McTominay, with Napoli’s Billy Gilmour set to challenge Croatia’s midfield maestro Luka Modric. The visitors will be without Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic, but Modric and Ivan Perisic bring experience to the squad. Perisic, who has been involved in three goals in two games against Scotland, hasn’t scored in his 18 Nations League appearances.
Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic is suspended, so Augsburg’s Nediljko Labrovic is expected to start in goal. For Scotland, 41-year-old Craig Gordon will continue to deputise for the injured Angus Gunn.
Predicted Scotland lineup:
Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes
Predicted Croatia lineup:
Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic